Ryan Drobny

Ryan's Take on the Seattle Mariner's Offseason

My thoughts on the actual changes that occur and musings on what-ifs for the Mariner's 2024 offseason / plan for the 2025 roster.

January 13th, 2025

Mariners Issue a Major League Deal

The wait is over. The Mariners announced today that they signed Donovan Solano to a Major League contract.

“Donovan has been among the most underrated hitters in the game over the past six years,” Jerry Dipoto said in a statement. “His veteran presence, consistent performance and positional versatility bring a lot to our roster.”

Dipoto is right, Solano has been an underrated hitter in recent years. Since leaving the Giants in 2021, he has not played for the same team in consecutive years despite always grading out as a league average or better hitter:

Year Team PA wRC+
2024 SD 309 118
2023 MIN 450 116
2022 CIN 304 99
2021 SF 344 105

The concern I have is likely shared by many Mariners fans: Solano will not be the first veteran hitter with a history of hitting success prior to calling Seattle his home. And Solano, at 37, is more veteran than most.

In his last 4 seasons, he has achieved most of his hitting success via high OBP that is aided by his ability to achieve high BABIP. Usually this can be a warning sign that a player has been lucky, but to his credit, Solano has consistently achieved BABIPs near or above .350.

Most of his hitting success has manifested as singles and doubles. The 8 home runs he hit in 96 games as a Padre last year was his career best. Again, only looking at the last 4 seasons, singles accounted for at least 70% of his hits each year. Only 12 times in those 4 years did Mariners hitter accomplish the same. The list of those instances is not that inspiring:

If we then consider the various parks Solano has called home in recent years and compare their factors to T-Mobile, another concern emerges:

(remember that a park factor of 100 is average, higher means we would expect more of that outcome than at other parks, lower means we would expect less)

Year Team %Hits 1B %Hits 2B %Hits 3B %Hits HR Home Park Factor 1B Seattle Home Park Factor 2B Seattle
2024 SDP 74% 16% 0% 10% 97 91 90 85
2023 MIN 71% 23% 1% 5% 96 92 108 86
2022 CIN 75% 20% 0% 5% 98 91 104 86
2021 SFG 72% 20% 0% 8% 100 95 98 89

This table shows that Solano has actually done quite well playing the way he does, despite doing a lot of his hitting in home parks that slightly suppressed singles (Minnesota and Cincinnati provided slight boosts to doubles).

But take a look at the corresponding factors for Seattle. Coming to Seattle, he could see his singles suppressed by an additional ~5% than he has typically seen. For doubles, it is even worse: T-Mobile has consistently suppressed doubles 15% below the league average.

January 2nd, 2025

Revisiting

It’s been a minute since the Mariners have done something. As a result, I haven’t posted an update in a while. I figured a trickle of roster moves here and there would provide ample opportunity to provide my thoughts on their roster construction. Oh well. Perhaps this act, writing about a lack of action, will manifest something…

I specifically have been waiting to address the biggest surprise to me for the Mariners so far: their decision to non-tender Josh Rojas. In my most recent update, I confidently asserted that “Rojas would be back.” I wasn’t the only one surprised by the move. I figured following moves might shed light on the front office’s thinking (and they still could) but now more than 2 months since that decision and the team’s direction at Rojas’s two best positions, 2B and 3B, are still unclear.

It’s possible the team viewed Rojas & Dylan Moore as duplicative with Moore providing the better bat against left handed pitching. Combined with the arrival of Ryan Bliss and pending arrival of Cole Young, the team may have simply seen his price tag as too high to keep around. It will be interesting to see if they misjudged how the market. Rojas’s market for suitors was reportedly substantial, and as of this morning, he signed with the White Sox.

Could his inclusion in a Luis Castillo trade have greased the wheels for a 2 for 2 trade where the Mariners acquired a starting caliber infielder and depth pitcher from a team seeking the opposite? We will never know.

Any too-online baseball fan will tell you many Mariner fans have already written-off this offseason as a failure. The evidence being a lack thereof. See also: 1) current ownership only prioritizes their bottom line by refusing to increase payroll and 2) a the lack of moves thus far (signings or trades) indicates Dipoto has lost his edge, misjudged the market, or some combo of both. Furthermore, the fact that the Nostalgia Well never dries up (more Dan Wilson & Edgar!) doesn’t help discern the notion that the organization panders to fans’ emotional attachment rather than winning to win them over.

However glum, pessimistic, or tired Mariner fans are, we stubbornly remain hopeful as well. A belief that good will eventually triumph over evil, even when evil always plays at home and has an ever-increasingly payroll.

I am here to temper the doom and suggest this offseason can still grade out positively. Here’s how:

26 Man Roster

If the season started tomorrow, here is how I imagine the roster shaking out:

I haven't found a way to build an easy-to-edit table that I like on this platform, so I have linked to a Google sheet instead.

Google Sheet

General Thoughts

When it comes to the Mariners and the offseason, baseball fans are quick to remember Jerry Dipoto and is propensity to wheel-and-deal via trades with opposing clubs. When I look at this 2024/2025 club, however, it's not as easy to see obvious pieces to be moved, nor obvious holes to fill.

The club's rotation was excellent (and rather healthy) in 2024. 4 pitchers made 30 or more starts with only Bryan Woo (22) and the team's 6th starting pitcher, Emerson Hancock (10) falling below that elite number. Only one other pitcher (Jonathan Diaz) even started a game for the Mariners in 2024, so to expect any changes to this group - especially after the team held onto this whole group in the last offseason - is just an exercise in predicting the unpredictable.

The bullpen was not as excellent or as healthy as the rotation. Key leverage guys like Matt Brash and Gregory Santos were limited to Santos' 7 innings in 2024. Missing 2 of the 3 top arms you plan on building your pen around is not ideal and difficult to mitigate. However, the M's RPs managed to produce the 4th best WHIP and a top 10 xFIP. Santos returned at the end of the season and with hope that Brash will be able to contribute in 2025 at some point, are easy to count on as some built-in improvements already in progress.

With pitching for the team mainly set, the key for this Mariner's offseason lies with the offense. The midseason moves to acquire Victor Robles and Randy Arozarena served to address the question of what the M's 2025 outfield will look like. Come Opening Day, we should expect Julio to be flanked by these two nearly every day.

One of the few free agent batter signings of Jerry's tenure with the Mariners came in form of Mitch Garver last offseason. It is fair to say that move did not go as planned. Despite some late season improvements, 2024 was Garver's worst season of his career. But with $23.5M guaranteed over the next 2 seasons, it is unlikely the Mariners will be able to move him easily. Look for Garver to primarily serve as Cal Raleigh's expensive backup and occasional DH hitter, maybe against some LHP.

With the news today that the Mariner's declined to exercise Jorge Polanco's $12M option, the infield is where we should expect to see the greatest changes for next year's club. JP Crawford will return as the teams shortstop. Josh Rojas will also return, although his defensive home (and place in the lineup) are still TBD. 24 y/o Ryan Bliss produced a wRC+ of 110 at AAA Tacoma in over 400 PA and should be a heavy favorite to win the 2B job this spring. Having the left-handed hitting Rojas as a capable 2B and 3B should give the team some confidence in rolling with Bliss out of the gate.

With the departure of Ty France, outfielder-turned-first baseman Luke Raley might get a look at regular 1B duty vs RHP. There are some names on the free agent market some might suggest the M's pursue (Alonso, Walker, Goldschmidt, etc.) but given Raley's success vs RHP, the presence of Tyler Locklear in AAA, and the state of roster inflexibility already (with Haniger & Garver) I would expect the team leave 1B as-is for now and focus instead across the diamond. In having to carry Haniger and his injury risk, rostering an OF-capable 1B in Raley, will give the team added flexibility in the OF should one of the regular need rest or go down with an injury.

If the Mariner's Opening Day starting 3B is already on the roster, the Mariner's offseason will be deemed a failure. That being said, the team will likely need to be creative to find a meaningful upgrade over what they got from the combination of Rojas, Dylan Moore and Luis Urias (.212/.311/.355). The FA crop at the position is headlined by former Astro Alex Bregman, but beyond that, the remaining options all have question marks (JD Davis, Yoan Moncada, etc.)

This is why above I wonder about Nolan Arenado and a potential move to acquire him. Albeit costly, a player under contract for a non-contending team may be the Mariner's best chance to address the position.

Past News & Thoughts

Running List of Thoughts